Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

Do fundamentals really determine PM prices or are prices largely determined by market manipulation?

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

I think a number of factors do - these two - or course - but, for example - emotions......fear, greed..........

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

Market manipulation...for now.

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

:wink: Since supply and demand fundamentals were hijacked by the central banks and TPTB over a hundred years ago...............

That would be a big...........NO :D

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

In the long term the fundies will win out.

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

I agree. Day to day, the markets are driven by "Big Money Profits", but long term it is driven by the fundamentals that cause supply and demand.

If you are going to play the day to day game, that requires that you let go of your "All Knowing Ego" and ride the "Big Train" and smile about it.

If you are physical long term, go with the "Big Picture".

If you do both, spend your short term earnings on long term assets.

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

By "long term" do you guys mean when TSHTF or can fundamentals win out before SHTF? I'm hoping someday PM's will reach they're true value based on fundamentals but I'm wondering if it can happen in a normal non-chaotic society...?

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

Personally I think the fundamentals support either scenario. The dollar and the American consumer economy support a fundamental rise in metals in my opinion and when TSHTF who knows? but I would rather hold metal than paper in that circumstance.

OTOH it doesn't hurt to have other useful security and tradeable hard assets as well for a SHTF case.

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

When it comes right down to it, EVERYTHING has fundamental value only to the extent that the human race "believes" that it has value. That includes gold, silver, wheat, copper, coffee, Cracker Jack prizes, and dirt. Look beyond the human psychie to the animal world, and nothing has value other than food, water, shelter, and sex-breeding or companionship. Beyond those very basics, the animal world just doesn't care. But animals seem to get along in life much better than we humans who get bored with it all and have to play these "I have more than you do" games to keep us entertained. Can you think of anything more useless if you are stranded on a desert island......alone......forever......than a big hunk of gold or silver to keep you company ?

Technicals, fundamentals, or whatever system you want to use...... are all based on a belief system that they will somehow add more chips to the pile that will allow us to increase our pile of mostly worthless crap for others to fight over when we are dead and gone.

I noticed someone's signature line here recently that said "The most abundant elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity!"

To that I would only add......"The best and most important things in life are usually free for the taking."

Too bad we spend so much time concentrating on everything else...................

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

A big fat yes to this question.

Why, just a few weeks ago the demand for silver dropped so quickly that the price tanked by 20% in just 4 hours! The efficiency of markets proudly displayed itself that morning, as for no particular reason, many of us holders of silver decided that it was no great shakes and sold, and all at the same time! What are the odds? Yet the market reflected our suddenly-changed opinions without a hiccup.

Further, the official version of events is always the most accurate, and history shows us that life is fair and that men form governments and make rules only to right wrongs and further justice.

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

Fundamentals rule and determine the market direction. Short term the market is manipulated by paper but as long as demand is more than what is mined prices will rise.. They used to have supplies to make up the difference held by Government stocks in Silver and no longer do. If you want the real stuff you have to pay up..

Fundamentals are like a river that you can build a dam on and hold it back for a while... sooner or later the water is going to continue on its natural path..

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

Fundamentals win out in the long run.

A look at the methods of the manipulators, posted yesterday on https://www.lemetropolecafe.com/ :

For all that I now hear gold is being pounded in the lightly traded Access Market, on a Friday summer afternoon no less ... around $6 to $8 lower than the Comex close two hours ago.
Houston's Dan Norcini:
I have been trading and thus watching the CBOT electronic gold contract for more than a year and a half now. In all that time, I have never witnessed what I am witnessing today. There is a literal avalanche of sell orders, huge offers, that are being flashed into this pit in the after hours. These offers are chasing the market down. No, let me rephrase that � they are being shoved down as panicked would be buyers run like hell as soon as the offers are flashed.
There is absolutely no mistaking what is taking place this afternoon for I have not witnessed this before. It is a deliberate and coordinated effort on the part of some huge shorts to take the gold market down in these thin conditions.
We are seeing offers of over 500 contracts at a time � this is simply unheard of in the CBOT pit at this time of day.
The fact that this is taking place with gold stocks holding relatively stable, crude oil up over $1.00 on the day at $71.50, the dollar closing weaker, etc � tells me that this is an all out attack.
Unfortunately, they buyers have fled to the hills and are no where to be seen. The tactic has worked perfectly.
Dan

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

Fundamentals are based on theory.

Price is fact.

I pay attention to PRICE. What you see, unfortunately, does not always bring you JOY. But, it does supply FACT.

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

What's that I hear from the sisters in the Amen Corner?:rofl:

Price is fact.:Sorry:

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

Fundamentals:
Attachment 15548

Manipulation:
Attachment 15549

Ones man's profit is another man's greed.
:rolleyes:

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

Here is what puzzles me....

The headlines a few weeks ago read something like "Gold price drops as Iran tensions decrease....blah...blah...blah"

Ok....fine. Less demand for GOLD as a hedge against TSHTF.

So how does that have anything to do with the supply/demand of silver. Isn't the above the ground silver supply still dwindlng....?

Why do gold and silver seem to move together when they are driven by different forces......???

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

I'm inclined to agree with G-khan.

Short term: paper rules and pretty well anything can and does happen.

Long term: fundamentals win out.

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

long term only fundamentals would heavily weigh on PM's....however market amnipulation would still exist in between but will not have a profound effect.....and with Iran and N Korea showing signs of reluctancy....holding physical is the safest bet!

Re: Do fundamentals really determine PM prices?
 

OK...long term fundamentals will rule. But what do you make of headlines like this one today?

Gold falls as dollar gains, Iran tensions ease - MarketWatch, Jun 19, 2006 11:05

What does this even mean....Are you less tense about Iran? I know my tension level hasn't really changed, and I doubt that's what's moving the market. I think it's BS in fact. The're grasping at straws to explain the inexplicable.

And this BS about the dollar being "stronger" everytime gold dips....how's that again? Who is this stuff meant to convince. Yeah...I know that a stronger dollar means lower PM's prices generally. But does anone really think the dollar is not going to continue to fall...???